Mark Lawrenson: Rafa Benitez's men must cope with first leg role reversal
IT looks so simple on paper. If Liverpool do what they have done in the last two semi-final meetings with Chelsea they will sail into a third European Cup final in four years.
The problem is, this time they are at home first. And they will need to go into it with a completely different psyche
When you play the first leg away from home you know what you have to do - or rather, don't do. Don't do anything silly, don't get sent off, don't give any daft goals away.
Liverpool always seem to tick those boxes and, with Anfield beckoning for the opposition in the second leg, that's been the key to them overcoming Chelsea in the past.
This time, however, the Kop won't be there to see Liverpool over the line as they have done so boisterously on the previous two occasions, and on so many others besides.
So the aim this time is very different. Ideally, going to Stamford Bridge with a lead and nothing in the goals against column would be top of Rafael Benitez's wish list, and he proved in the last 16 tie with Inter Milan that he can see out a second leg in those circumstances.
But Chelsea will be going all out to stop this happening. What they have to do is so obvious, it doesn't need Avram Grant to tell them (not that they'd listen to him anyway!).
They can delude themselves their system is 4-3-3 all they want, but it will be a firm 4-5-1 tonight and I wouldn't be surprised to see Claude Makelele involved.
Chelsea need someone disciplined and experienced to make sure Steven Gerrard can't get free. And that is likely to be Liverpool's biggest problem - the midfield being suffocated.
What Liverpool will also face is a set of bloody-minded players with the extra incentive of shaking off the hurt of the previous two defeats, that will still rankle like hell.
And this is another vital difference to last year and in 2005. Liverpool v Chelsea semi-finals have always had a sideshow of Benitez v Mourinho running alongside them. The battle of the coaches.
That's pointless this year, as there's no need to ask the question who is the better coach this time. Even Grant, with one of his famous one-word answers, would be able to sort out that debate.
So it's all on the players. Terry, Carvalho, Ballack, Lampard, Drogba, Cech - none of them will be bothered who the manager is and whether he stays at the end of the season or not.
Like their opponents, they are big enough and strong enough to ignore off-field unrest and just concentrate on getting to the European Cup final.
However they do it, they won't care, just as long as they're taking their owner to his Moscow manor in May.
And Chelsea have won cups and titles in the past few years, proving they have what it takes to close in on the prize and grasp it.
The exact opposite, in fact, to Arsenal - so any hopes of similarities between this game and the quarter-final with Arsene Wenger's men can be forgotten straight away.
This will be very different in many ways.
Hopefully, though, the results will remain the same. But at the moment, just hours before kick- off I honestly think it's 50-50.
After all, predictions are like first legs themselves - you can't afford to be too bold.
Mark Lawrenson was speaking to NICK SMITH
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