Outlook bright but Liverpool's rivals are in storming form

NEW season, same old story? Well, I'd certainly say that was the case for most of the Premier League, which kicks off for the 2009-10 instalment on Saturday.
But on Merseyside, it might not necessarily be that way. Liverpool and Everton had superb seasons last year, both representing significant progress.
Liverpool achieved their highest points total of the Premier League era and got closer than they ever have before to winning it.
Everton maintained their status as a top five club and reached their first major final for 14 years before an agonising defeat to Chelsea in the FA Cup at Wembley in May.
So both clubs have plenty to build on and now have enhanced ambitions.
However, building on them will be very difficult - possibly more difficult than it has ever been before.
Elsewhere, however, we could be looking at more of the same - and here's my breakdown of how I think the Premier League will pan out.
TOP FOUR
WHILE I do think Liverpool have a chance of the title, I'm slightly concerned that I'm basing that on what might happen at other clubs rather than what's happening at Anfield.
I firmly believe that if Rafael Benitez had the funds available this would have been the perfect summer to go all out and get David Villa.
That would have been the ultimate statement of intent in terms of strengthening and building on the title challenge they mounted in the last campaign.
But for whatever reason, it seems Benitez hasn't been able to make that real top quality world class addition to his forward line - and there's a chance the attacking outlets might have been weakened.
Aquilani is unproven at Premier League level and can't play for weeks anyway, while the departure of Xabi Alonso could be a big blow.
I think it presents a problem for Steven Gerrard in terms of his opportunities to support Fernando Torres in attack as being without the quick, incisive delivery of Alonso could see him be pushed back deeper in his search of possession.
With the best will in the world, I don't feel that Lucas and Mascherano can supply the same kind of possession for Gerrard and if he has to go into other areas to get the ball then it could take the edge off his partnership with Torres.
So while I can point to the ways in which the Liverpool cause may have weakened, I still feel the periods of transition Chelsea and Manchester United are going through will give Liverpool hope.
I would play it safe in predicting United for the title because I still have the feeling that they will make more additions to the squad before the end of the transfer window, and if they can find something close to a Cristiano Ronaldo replacement (David Silva wouldn't be a bad shout) then it pains me to say they could be first to number 19.
Both United and Chelsea are defensively durable and, in the case of the later, there's no way bringing in someone like Carlo Ancelotti will change that.
As for the other team in the top four, Arsenal will be the same old Arsenal - they'll have us purring at some of the football they play when they take teams apart at the Emirates, but when it comes to going away and it's time for the tin hats, teams can roll them over and stop them winning.
But I don't think anyone will stop them finishing in the top four either.
NEXT FOUR
EVERTON did magnificently to hang on to fifth place last season, but once again they had to rely on certain fancied teams under-achieving.
Aston Villa looked for a long time as if they would penetrate the top five but they will learn from that experience and push again.
And I reckon you can add Manchester City and Spurs to the list of sides who will be threatening the Europa Cup qualification spots.
Everton simply haven't strengthened and while the reasons are understandable, that will make it more difficult than ever for them to keep competing on the same level as the previous two years.
David Moyes will, of course, always make a good go of it, but when you look at the spending some of their rivals have made, how can they cope - especially with key players set to miss the start of the season.
This time, a bad start might cost them because the likes of Spurs and City are sure to be out of the blocks and trying to impose themselves.
I can't see Mark Hughes's men making the step into the top four because I just don't think you can achieve that kind of success if you don't know what your best team is.
I'm sure Hughes hasn't stopped spending yet but that only re-iterates my point - it's going to be even more difficult for him to make up his mind with all that talent available.
Still, it is talent nonetheless and it's impossible to imagine they won't be significantly improved on last season.
Same with Spurs. Harry Redknapp finally gets the chance to go into a full season and with Defoe and Crouch back together, along with Robbie Keane they will score enough goals to carry on the momentum from late last season.
And Villa should still be up there. If they can get Tuncay away from Middlesbrough they have the type of attacker that can more than make up for the loss of Gareth Barry.
SURPRISE PACKAGE
MY team to watch this season will be Stoke. If they can complete a deal for Dean Ashton it will make them very strong up front and, added to what they already have, it makes them my tip to break into the top 10.
Tony Pulis proved last year that he knows what it takes to win Premier League games and with a full years' experience behind him, I really believe he can take them on to the next level.
Same for Sunderland. Darren Bent is a good signing because a club like Sunderland is far more suited to him than a club like Spurs. He will get every opportunity to be their main man and with a proven campaigner like Steve Bruce leading the way, I can see them making a real impact this time.
I think Gianfranco Zola will continue to surprise us at West Ham but I can't see Fulham building on their highest ever finish from last season.
They were lucky in that they had no injuries to their major players and this time, with the Europa League to contend with, it will be much more difficult.
The north west trio of Wigan, Bolton and Blackburn I expect to be as solid and unspectacular as ever.
GOING DOWN
I CAN'T see how Portsmouth can possibly cope with the loss of as many players as they have suffered - their only saving grace is that there should be three teams even worse off in trying to keep their heads above water at the highest level.
I can't see Burnley and Birmingham being strong enough to stay afloat. It's impossible to do the strengthening required after winning the play-offs and Birmingham are too reliant on young Benitez - is he really going to get them 15 goals?
And if Hull don't find someone who can score they won't get enough goals to stay up.
I fancy Wolves to beat them on that score. They remind me of Reading when they first came up, lively and vibrant with just the right combination of a strong home following and unknown quantity.
PLAYER TO WATCH
FOR me, it's players to watch this time - Manchester City's starting XI. I think it will be fascinating to see how Hughes juggles it all and who he finally settles on.
I just hope Craig Bellamy's been brushing up on his right-back skills!
Mark Lawrenson was talking to NICK SMITH
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